Understanding price developments and consumer price indices in south-eastern Europe

The primary goal of monetary policy in most economies of the world is to achieve and maintain price stability. This paper evaluates price developments and consumer price indices in south-eastern European countries, i.e. countries that have either recently joined the EU or are candidate or potential candidate countries. It is motivated by the fact that, in transition countries, inflation has generally been higher and more volatile than in advanced economies. The analysis reveals that the subindex housing/energy appears to be the main driving force behind overall inflation in the region. In most of the countries under review, administered prices prove to be an important factor in consumer price developments, with their weights increasing over time. Inflation volatility in south-eastern Europe is significantly higher than in the euro area. While this is partly due to a higher level of inflation, it also reflects a more pronounced share for the most volatile sub-indices as well as the marked impact of administered prices on the overall price index, a phenomenon which has also been seen in the central and eastern European countries. While in most south-eastern European countries no HICP has been calculated yet, there is little evidence suggesting that the future use of the HICP will result in a systematic change in inflation patterns in the respective countries. However, as deviations have been observed in a few countries for certain periods, without further information on the structure of the respective national CPI and the HICP such differences cannot be fully excluded. JEL Classification: E21, O52, O57, P22.South-eastern Europe, inflation developments, inflation volatility, consumer price indices, HICP, administered prices.

Aprotinin may increase mortality in low and intermediate risk but not in high risk cardiac surgical patients compared to tranexamic acid and ε-aminocaproic acid - a meta-analysis of randomised and observational trials of over 30.000 patients

Background: To compare the effect of aprotinin with the effect of lysine analogues (tranexamic acid and ε-aminocaproic acid) on early mortality in three subgroups of patients: low, intermediate and high risk of cardiac surgery. Methods and Findings: We performed a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and observational with the following data sources: Medline, Cochrane Library, and reference lists of identified articles. The primary outcome measure was early (in-hospital/30-day) mortality. The secondary outcome measures were any transfusion of packed red blood cells within 24 hours after surgery, any re-operation for bleeding or massive bleeding, and acute renal dysfunction or failure within the selected cited publications, respectively. Out of 328 search results, 31 studies (15 trials and 16 observational studies) included 33,501 patients. Early mortality was significantly increased after aprotinin vs. lysine analogues with a pooled risk ratio (95% CI) of 1.58 (1.13–2.21), p<0.001 in the low (n = 14,297) and in the intermediate risk subgroup (1.42 (1.09–1.84), p<0.001; n = 14,427), respectively. Contrarily, in the subgroup of high risk patients (n = 4,777), the risk for mortality did not differ significantly between aprotinin and lysine analogues (1.03 (0.67–1.58), p = 0.90). Conclusion: Aprotinin may be associated with an increased risk of mortality in low and intermediate risk cardiac surgery, but presumably may has no effect on early mortality in a subgroup of high risk cardiac surgery compared to lysine analogues. Thus, decisions to re-license aprotinin in lower risk patients should critically be debated. In contrast, aprotinin might probably be beneficial in high risk cardiac surgery as it reduces risk of transfusion and bleeding complications

Wie wirksam sind neue Therapien für Hepatitis C? : Mathematische Modellierung charakterisiert den individuellen Behandlungserfolg

Die derzeitige Therapie der chronischen Hepatitis C ist komplex und mit zahlreichen Nebenwirkungen assoziiert. Um den Therapieerfolg frühzeitig vorhersagen zu können und die Behandlung individuell zu optimieren, greifen Forscher des Frankfurter Leberzentrums auf mathematische Modellierung zurück. ..

The effects of clinical hypnosis versus Neurolinguistic Programming (NLP) before External Cephalic Version (ECV) : a prospective off-centre randomised, double-blind, controlled trial

Objective. To examine the effects of clinical hypnosis versus NLP intervention on the success rate of ECV procedures in comparison to a control group. Methods. A prospective off-centre randomised trial of a clinical hypnosis intervention against NLP of women with a singleton breech fetus at or after 370/7 (259 days) weeks of gestation and normal amniotic fluid index. All 80 participants heard a 20-minute recorded intervention via head phones. Main outcome assessed was success rate of ECV. The intervention groups were compared with a control group with standard medical care alone (n=122). Results. A total of 42 women, who received a hypnosis intervention prior to ECV, had a 40.5% (n=17), successful ECV, whereas 38 women, who received NLP, had a 44.7% (n=17) successful ECV (P > 0.05). The control group had similar patient characteristics compared to the intervention groups (P > 0.05). In the control group (n = 122) 27.3% (n = 33) had a statistically significant lower successful ECV procedure than NLP (P = 0.05) and hypnosis and NLP (P = 0.03). Conclusions. These findings suggest that prior clinical hypnosis and NLP have similar success rates of ECV procedures and are both superior to standard medical care alone

Geburtsmodus bei Typ 1 Diabetes mellitus: Welche Faktoren beeinflussen den Erfolg einer intendierten Spontangeburt?

Purpose: To evaluate the independent factors associated with the success of a trial of vaginal birth (TVB) in women with type 1 diabetes. Despite all therapeutic efforts and technological innovations, rates of caesarean sections (CS) in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes remain unchanged above 60%. Our aim was to point out influencing factors to improve the quality of antepartum counseling. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 195 pregnancies with type 1 diabetes treated between 2000 and 2019. After exclusions, 118 women with near-term singleton pregnancies intended vaginal birth (TVB). Group differences between CS and successful vaginal delivery were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression was performed by including clinical and metabolic variables to determine the independent effects on a successful vaginal delivery. Subgroup analysis for nulliparous women. Results: Of 118 women with TVB, 67 (56.8%) were delivered vaginally. History of previous vaginal delivery (OR 10.29; CI 2.39; 44.30), HbA1c changes during pregnancy (per % increase; OR 0.59; CI 0.36; 0.96) and gestational weight gain (per kg; OR 0.87; CI 0.80; 0.96) were independent predictors for a successful vaginal delivery. In nulliparous women, the duration of diabetes was independently and negatively associated with vaginal delivery. Conclusion: Provided data can help to improve antepartum counseling in type 1 diabetic patients. It seems that women with type 1 diabetes should avoid postponing pregnancy and childbirth

Interobserver agreement of Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (TIRADS) and strain elastography for the assessment of thyroid nodules

Background: Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (TIRADS) was developed to improve patient management and cost-effectiveness by avoiding unnecessary fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) in patients with thyroid nodules. However, its clinical use is still very limited. Strain elastography (SE) enables the determination of tissue elasticity and has shown promising results for the differentiation of thyroid nodules. Methods: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the interobserver agreement (IA) of TIRADS developed by Horvath et al. and SE. Three blinded observers independently scored stored images of TIRADS and SE in 114 thyroid nodules (114 patients). Cytology and/or histology was available for all benign (n = 99) and histology for all malignant nodules (n = 15). Results: The IA between the 3 observers was only fair for TIRADS categories 2–5 (Coheńs kappa = 0.27,p = 0.000001) and TIRADS categories 2/3 versus 4/5 (ck = 0.25,p = 0.0020). The IA was substantial for SE scores 1–4 (ck = 0.66,p<0.000001) and very good for SE scores 1/2 versus 3/4 (ck = 0.81,p<0.000001). 92–100% of patients with TIRADS-2 had benign lesions, while 28–42% with TIRADS-5 had malignant cytology/histology. The negative-predictive-value (NPV) was 92–100% for TIRADS using TIRADS-categories 4&5 and 96–98% for SE using score ES-3&4 for the diagnosis of malignancy, respectively. However, only 11–42% of nodules were in TIRADS-categories 2&3, as compared to 58–60% with ES-1&2. Conclusions: IA of TIRADS developed by Horvath et al. is only fair. TIRADS and SE have high NPV for excluding malignancy in the diagnostic work-up of thyroid nodules

Prenatal ultrasound screening for fetal anomalies and outcomes in high-risk pregnancies due to maternal HIV infection : a retrospective study

Objective: To assess the prevalence of prenatal screening and of adverse outcome in high-risk pregnancies due to maternal HIV infection. Study design: The prevalence of prenatal screening in 330 pregnancies of HIV-positive women attending the department for prenatal screening and/or during labour between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2012, was recorded. Screening results were compared with the postnatal outcome and maternal morbidity, and mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) was evaluated. Results: One hundred of 330 women (30.5%) had an early anomaly scan, 252 (74.5%) had a detailed scan at 20–22 weeks, 18 (5.5%) had a detailed scan prior to birth, and three (0.9%) had an amniocentesis. In seven cases (2.12%), a fetal anomaly was detected prenatally and confirmed postnatally, while in eight (2.42%) an anomaly was only detected postnatally, even though a prenatal scan was performed. There were no anomalies in the unscreened group. MTCT occurred in three cases (0.9%) and seven fetal and neonatal deaths (2.1%) were reported. Conclusion: The overall prevalence of prenatal ultrasound screening in our cohort is 74.5%, but often the opportunity for prenatal ultrasonography in the first trimester is missed. In general, the aim should be to offer prenatal ultrasonography in the first trimester in all pregnancies. This allows early reassurance or if fetal disease is suspected, further steps can be taken

Acoustic radiation force impulse imaging for differentiation of thyroid nodules

Background: Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse (ARFI)-imaging is an ultrasound-based elastography method enabling quantitative measurement of tissue stiffness. The aim of the present study was to evaluate sensitivity and specificity of ARFI-imaging for differentiation of thyroid nodules and to compare it to the well evaluated qualitative real-time elastography (RTE). Methods: ARFI-imaging involves the mechanical excitation of tissue using acoustic pulses to generate localized displacements resulting in shear-wave propagation which is tracked using correlation-based methods and recorded in m/s. Inclusion criteria were: nodules $5 mm, and cytological/histological assessment. All patients received conventional ultrasound, real-time elastography (RTE) and ARFI-imaging. Results: One-hundred-fifty-eight nodules in 138 patients were available for analysis. One-hundred-thirty-seven nodules were benign on cytology/histology, and twenty-one nodules were malignant. The median velocity of ARFI-imaging in the healthy thyroid tissue, as well as in benign and malignant thyroid nodules was 1.76 m/s, 1.90 m/s, and 2.69 m/s, respectively. While no significant difference in median velocity was found between healthy thyroid tissue and benign thyroid nodules, a significant difference was found between malignant thyroid nodules on the one hand and healthy thyroid tissue (p = 0.0019) or benign thyroid nodules (p = 0.0039) on the other hand. No significant difference of diagnostic accuracy for the diagnosis of malignant thyroid nodules was found between RTE and ARFI-imaging (0.74 vs. 0.69, p = 0.54). The combination of RTE with ARFI did not improve diagnostic accuracy. Conclusions: ARFI can be used as an additional tool in the diagnostic work up of thyroid nodules with high negative predictive value and comparable results to RTE

Modeling of Viral Dynamics after Liver Transplantation in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B and D

Viral kinetic models have become an important tool for understanding the main biological processes behind the dynamics of chronic viral diseases and optimizing effectiveness of anti-viral therapy. We analyzed the dynamics of hepatitis B and D co-infection (HBV/HDV) and the pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics of the reinfection prophylaxis with polyclonal antibodies after liver transplantation. Therefore we developed a mechanistic model consisting of a system of ordinary differential equations. This model was fitted by analyzing the kinetics of HBV/HDV viremia after liver transplantation in patient data and correlated with the reinfection prophylaxis dosing schemes. The results suggest that this modeling approach may help to optimize reinfection prophylaxis

Rates of consistency for nonparametric estimation of the mode in absence of smoothness assumptions

Nonparametric estimation of the mode of a density or regression function via kernel methods is considered. It is shown that the rate of consistency of the mode estimator can be determined without typical smoothness conditions. Only the uniform rate of the co-called stochastic part of the problem together with some mild conditions characterizing the shape or "acuteness" of the mode influence the rate of the mode estimator. In particular, outside the location of the mode, our assumptions do not even imply continuity. Overall, it turns out that the location of the mode can be estimated at a rate that is the better the "peakier" (and hence non-smooth) the mode is, while the contrary holds with estimation of the size of the mode